Kyle Sturdivant knows a thing or two about analytics. As a senior point guard for the Georgia Tech men’s basketball team, he has experienced the rise of data-driven analysis in every
facet of the game, from true shooting percentage to player efficiency ratings. Indeed, the use of advanced statistics has become standard procedure off the court, as well, helping predict and prevent injury, scouting potential recruits, and even trying to decipher the business side of sports.
So, it came as no surprise to Sturdivant, also a business administration major, when the Scheller College of Business approached him and two of his teammates about working with the Georgia Tech Athletic Association on a sports management practicum to take an analytical look at the NCAA transfer portal.
“They came to us because we play basketball and two of us transferred, one didn’t,” says Sturdivant, who transferred as a sophomore from the University of Southern California to be closer to his family in Norcross, Ga., after his father died. “They wanted our experience.”
Launched in 2018, the transfer portal is a place for student-athletes looking to change schools without sacrificing a year of eligibility as they had to, previously. Players are now essentially able to leave their current team for any reason in search of a different coach, setting, system, or situation. As a result, coaches not only have to recruit new players and transfers from other schools, but they also must convince their current student-athletes to stay. And with several thousand players entering the portal every year, the portal has completely changed college athletics—sending athletic departments scurrying to find ways to adjust and remain successful.
“It’s a bit of the Wild West at this point,” says Jonathan Clarke, associate professor of finance in the Scheller College of Business, who along with marketing senior lecturer Tim Halloran created the practicum. “These days, there is so much data on college basketball teams and players. So, we posed the questions: Can you build a team from transfers? And whom should you recruit?”
The practicum team looked at the year-by-year number of transfers that enter the portal, along with individual player rankings and actual performance before and after the transfer (including per-game points scored, rebounds, and assists). The analysts also looked at each school—particularly those in the so-called “Power 6” conferences, which includes the ACC, in which Tech plays—and how many transfers they accepted and their year-to-year results.
Some of what the undergrads and MBA students found surprised them.
First, while the number of transfers has exploded since the advent of the portal (a 147% increase between 2018 and 2022, 226% in Power 6–to–Power 6 transfers), transfers typically don’t improve their performance statistically after jumping schools. Perhaps even more surprising: The schools that used the portal most didn’t experience a significant improvement in performance the following year. In fact, only one school in the top 10% of incoming transfers, Texas Tech, has reached a Final Four—and all their transfers came after that 2019 Final Four appearance.
“Perennial contenders like Duke and Kentucky aren’t using the portal,” says Clarke. “One takeaway is that if you can recruit a good class coming in, it tends to bode well for the success of the team.”
That insight might be valuable to the Tech basketball team. But the practicum’s true significance as it pertains to Yellow Jacket basketball—and the athletic department as a whole—is showing how athletics can use the Tech expertise outside of McCamish Pavilion to gain a competitive advantage.
“This is an area where Georgia Tech can excel,” says Simit Shah, CmpE 99, associate athletic director for Georgia Tech athletics. “In general, people in sports are using analytics to look beyond performance on the field; there is different data you can use in and around your stadium. We’re in a great centralized position to tap into resources and talent on campus and find ways to collaborate.”
And in return, students and faculty in these other departments can have access to subjects for their own research, including student-athletes like Sturdivant. Which is important because, for all the emphasis on data and statistics, there are real people behind those numbers.
“I think stats are important, but they don’t tell the complete story,” says Sturdivant. “You can’t forget what your eyes tell you. And everyone forgets that student-athletes are students first.”